第一段
①Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return?②Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel,up from less than $10 last December.③This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled.④Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline.⑤So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
单词&词组
supply-cut 削减供应，削减产量
crude a. 天然的，未提炼的
barrel n. 桶
tripling n. 三倍
call sb./sth. up 使回忆起，使想起
scary a. 可怕的，恐怖的
quadruple v. 成为四倍
double-digit a. 两位数的
inflation n. 通货膨胀
headline n. 大字标题，头条新闻
crude oil 原油
gloom and doom 厄运，对未来的悲观失望
push up 提高
本段翻译
过去那些经济衰退的悲惨日子是否即将重现?自石油输出国组织三月决定削减原油供应以来，原油价格已从去年十二月的每桶不到10美元上涨到接近26美元。油价的近三倍上涨勾起了人们对1973年和1979一1980年石油冲击可怕的回忆：1979年时，油价翻了两番，1979-1980年期间，油价也几乎涨至原先的三倍。前两次油价冲击均导致了两位数的通货膨胀率并引发了全球性的经济衰退。那么，这次警告人们厄运来临的头版头条在哪里?
第二段
①The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports.②Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.
单词&词组
suspend v. 暂停，中止
hemisphere n. 地球的半球（尤指赤道以北或以南的北半球或南半球）
oil export 石油出口
本段翻译
本周伊拉克暂停石油出口使油价又一次被推高。强劲的经济增长势头，加上北半球冬季的来袭，可能在短期内将石油价格推得更高。
第三段
①Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s.②In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s.③In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
单词&词组
severe a. （天气）恶劣的，极端的
retail price 零售价
muted a. 非公开或非强烈表达的，暗中的
pump n. 泵，文中是用加油的“泵”指代“汽油”
have a muted effect on sth. 对……影响较小
pump price 出泵价格
本段翻译
然而，我们有充分的理由预期这次油价上涨所带来的经济影响不会像20世纪70年代那么严重。与70年代相比，现在多数国家的原油成本占汽油价格的比例较小。在欧洲，税费在汽油零售价中所占比例高达五分之四，因此，即使原油价格发生很大波动，汽油价格所受的影响也不会像过去那么显著。
第四段
①Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were,and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price.②Energy conservation,a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy,energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption.③Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production.④For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973.⑤The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that,if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year,compared with $13 in 1998,this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25%~0.5% of GDP.⑥That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980.⑦On the other hand,oil-importing emerging economies-to which heavy industry has shifted-have become more energy-intensive,and so could be more seriously squeezed.
单词&词组
swing n. 摆动，摇摆，文中比喻“油价的波动”
conservation n. 保护，保存
energy-intensive a. 能源密集型的
squeeze v. 使……经济拮据
oil consumption 石油消耗
emerging economy 新兴经济体
本段翻译
富裕国家也不再像过去那样依赖石油，因此对油价的波动也不那么敏感了。能源保护、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工业的重要性降低都导致石油消耗量减少。软件、咨询及移动电话消耗的石油，比钢铁、汽车制造少得多。富裕国家国内生产总值(以不变价格计算)中，每一美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。在最近一期的《经济展望》中国际经合组织估计，如果全年平均油价为每桶22美元，与1998年的13美元一桶相比，这也仅会使富裕国家的石油进口支出增加GDP的0.25—0.5个百分点。这还不到1974年或1980年收入损失的四分之一。另一方面，进口石油的新兴国家重工业已转移至此—已经变得更加能源密集，因此可能遭受更严重的打击。
第五段
①One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of generalcommodity-price inflation and global excess demand.②A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline.③The Economist’s commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago.④In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.
单词&词组
commodity n. 商品
excess demand 过量需求
sizable a. 相当大的
commodity price index n. 商品价格指数
本段翻译
无需为油价上涨失眠的另外一个原因是，与20世纪70年代不同，这次油价上升并没有发生在普遍物价上涨及全球需求过量的背景之下。世界上诸多地区才刚刚摆脱经济衰退。《经济学人》的商品价格指数与一年前相比，总体上没有什么变化。而1973年的物价跃升了70%，1979年也上升了近30%。
五道题
31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is_______
A：global inflation.
B：reduction in supply.
C：fast growth in economy.
D：Iraq’s suspension of exports.
32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if______.
[A] price of crude rises.
[B] commodity prices rise.
[C] consumption rises.
[D] oil taxes rise.
33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries_______.
A：heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive.
B：income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices.
C：manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed.
D：oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP.
34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that_______.
A：oil-price shocks are less shocking now.
B：inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks.
C：energy conservation can keep down the oil prices.
D：the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry.
35. From the text we can see that the writer seems__________.
［A］optimistic. ［B］sensitive. ［C］gloomy. ［D］scared.
选项单词
fluctuate v. 波动，涨落
gloomy a. 阴暗的，令人沮丧的，阴郁的
参考答案
BDDAA
答案解析
31、第一段②句明确指出：自OPEC决定减少原油供应以来， 原油价格已大幅上升。可见，“供应量减少”与“最近石油价格上涨”之间为直接因果关系，[B]正确。
32、第三段②③句指出，现在原油成本占汽油价格比例减小，税费占比增加，所以原油价格飙升对汽油价格的影响较小。可见，如今影响汽油零售价格的是“税费”，[D]正确。
33、由Economic Outlook和rich countries定位到第四段⑤⑥句。两句提到“国际经合组织在最近一期《经济展望》中估计，若全年平均油价由每桶13美元涨至22美元，发达国家的石油进口支出也仅增加GDP的0.25%~0.5%， 该收人损失仅为前两次石油冲击的1/4”。数据本身及only一词都表明其影响不大，[D]正确。
34、第三段首句提出作者观点，我们有充分的理由预期这次油价上涨所带来的经济影响不会很严重，接着阐述原因：(1)原油价格只占汽油价格的一小部分；(2)发达国家对石油的依赖性降低；(3)此次油价上涨并非发生在商品总价格上涨和全球需求旺盛这种大环境下。[A]正确。
35、第一、二段提出问题“此次油价飙升会不会引发经济衰退”；第三至五段首先亮出观点“我们有充分的理由认为这次油价上涨带来的经济影响不会很严重”，随后从多个角度分析指出此次不发生经济衰退，末段特别指出“无需为此次油价飙升难眠(即：大可放心，危机不会发生)，[A]正确。
